Formulas and sources
Each formula this calculator uses, where it comes from, and what it leaves out. "How it works" shows the same formula with your own numbers.
Future value
Simple, Goal Planning and Advanced modes
- FV
- future value, in the dollars of the year you reach it; with Find Contribution Needed, your goal
- P
- initial investment
- PMT
- contribution each period; with Find Contribution Needed, the answer
- r
- yearly return less the fund fees, as a decimal: 7% at a 0.5% expense ratio is 0.065
- n
- contributions a year: 52, 26, 12 or 1
- t
- years
Each period grows at (1+r)^(1/n) - 1, so a full year grows by exactly r. With Start of Period timing, the contribution part is also multiplied by (1+r)^(1/n). With Find Future Value, In today's money is FV ÷ (1 + i)^t, i the yearly inflation rate (set in Advanced; it starts at 2%); inflation restates the balance, it does not slow growth.
Source: Standard compound interest and annuity formula; no single publisher.
After tax
Advanced mode, with Show Tax-Adjusted Values on
- Tax-Advantaged
- FV × (1 - tax), the whole balance taxed at withdrawal
- Taxable, Taxed each year
- the future value formula with r × (1 - tax) in place of r
- Taxable, Taxed at sale
- FV - tax × (FV - P - total contributions), tax on the gain only
Here tax is the Tax Rate, as a decimal. One flat tax rate stands in for real brackets, holding periods and account rules. Taxed at sale assumes the funds pay no dividends or capital gain distributions before you sell.
Source: Standard formula; no single publisher. Under IRS Publication 550, distributions a fund does pay are taxed in the year paid [3].
Strategy presets
Every mode
- Conservative
- 30% stocks, 60% bonds, 10% cash: 6.5% a year, volatility 7.6%, worst year -15.9% (2022)
- Moderate
- 60% stocks, 35% bonds, 5% cash: 8.5% a year, volatility 12.0%, worst year -27.1% (1931)
- Aggressive
- 90% stocks, 8% bonds, 2% cash: 9.5% a year, volatility 17.5%, worst year -39.6% (1931)
Stocks are the S&P 500 with dividends, bonds the 10-year US Treasury bond and cash the 3-month Treasury bill. The return is the compound yearly return for 1928 to 2025, rounded to the nearest half percent. Volatility is the standard deviation of the yearly returns.
Source: Based on Damodaran's yearly returns [1], combined into each mix and rebalanced every year.
Return scenarios
In the Investment Strategies section
- R
- the strategy's yearly return, from the presets
- σ
- the mix's volatility
- t
- years, at least 1
z is 1.645 for the 5th and 95th percentiles and 0.674 for the 25th and 75th, from the normal distribution. If years are independent, σ ÷ √t is how much the average yearly return over t years varies, so the range narrows over a longer term. Each rate then goes through the future value formula.
Source: Standard formula; no single publisher. The volatility comes from Damodaran's yearly returns [1].
Monte Carlo simulation
In the Monte Carlo section
- r
- your expected yearly return, less the fund fees
- σ
- the volatility: the chosen mix's, the Moderate mix's for a custom return, or the figure you type
- Z
- a standard normal draw, made from two random numbers by Box and Muller's equation (1)
Each simulated year draws a return a, which follows a normal distribution with mean r and standard deviation σ. Each period of that year grows at (1 + a)^(1/n) - 1, n the contributions a year, and a year never loses more than 100%. The section runs this 500 to 10,000 times and reports percentiles of the final balances.
Source: Uses the formula in Box and Muller (1958) [2], equation (1), scaled by σ and shifted by r. The default volatility comes from Damodaran's yearly returns [1].
Sources
- Damodaran A. Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2024, yearly returns of the S&P 500 with dividends, the 10-year US Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. NYU Stern School of Business, January 2026 edition (updated January 5, 2026), rows for 1928 to 2025; the page is replaced each January.
- Box GEP, Muller ME. A Note on the Generation of Random Normal Deviates, page 610, equation (1). The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 1958; 29(2): 610-611.
- Internal Revenue Service. Publication 550 (2025), Investment Income and Expenses, Dividends and Other Distributions, including Capital Gain Distributions. 2025 edition.
What this calculator does not cover
- It models one lump sum plus regular contributions at one return, less one expense ratio for the whole portfolio. It does not track holdings or yearly 401(k) and IRA limits.
- The strategy figures are US history from 1928 to 2025, not a forecast.
- The Monte Carlo draws each year independently from one normal distribution. It does not model years more extreme than that distribution gives, or streaks of good and bad years.
- For a savings account with no market risk, see the Savings Calculator.
Sources checked on .